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Monday, November 7
9:30am CST Featured Speaker Address: Cathy O'Neil Thomas Holmes, Akur8; Cathy O'Neil show more Description CAS' Annual Meeting Featured speaker, Cathy O'Neil, PhD., will share her thoughts, analyses and concerns over the uses of data and algorithms to draw incomplete or inaccurate conclusions and what we as a profession can do to level the field. *Featured Speaker sponsored by Akur8 ** If you wish to participate via livestream/webcast, this requires a separate registration. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Monday, Nov 7 9:30AM - 10:30AM CST Speakers Thomas Holmes Akur8 Cathy O'Neil
11:30am CST Learn about Us — Abacus Actuaries Jessica Leong, Octagram Analytics show more Description Come join us at lunch to learn about Abacus Actuaries! A network of aspiring, practicing, and former actuaries, working together through mentorship programs, networking and other professional development opportunities to break the bamboo ceiling so Asians can achieve equal representation in the highest ranks of the actuarial profession. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Monday, Nov 7 11:30AM - 1:00PM CST Speakers Jessica Leong Octagram Analytics Learn about Us - International Association of Black Actuaries (IABA) show more Description Come join us at lunch to learn about IABA! The International Association of Black Actuaries is a professional and student member organization whose mission is to increase the number of successful Black actuaries through programs and partnerships that address their underrepresentation in the profession. Our vision is equitable exposure, access, development, and advancement for Black people within the actuarial profession. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Monday, Nov 7 11:30AM - 1:00PM CST Learn about Us - Network of Actuarial Women and Allies (NAWA) show more Description Come join us at lunch to learn about NAWA! From the 1980s to the 2010s, our profession saw steady growth in the percentage of female actuaries — rising from around 20% up to 31%. But for the past decade, things have stayed stagnant and female representation at senior leadership levels look even worse. It’s time for change. And because the support of allies are key to meaningful change, it is just as important to include allies in our community as the women we are seeking to empower. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Monday, Nov 7 11:30AM - 1:00PM CST
1:00pm CST Chief Actuary Roundtable Katherine Antonello, Employers; Bruce Gifford, Travelers; Donna Glenn, NCCI; David Cummings, USAA show more Description Join CAS President Kathy Antonello for a discussion with leaders of companies that are large employers of CAS members. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Monday, Nov 7 1:00PM - 2:30PM CST Speakers Katherine Antonello Employers Bruce Gifford Travelers Donna Glenn NCCI David Cummings USAA
3:00pm CST An FBI View of Cyber Threats & the Insurance Landscape show more Description The 21st century brings new challenges in which criminal security threats strike from near and afar through computer networks, with potentially devastating consequences and large financial impacts to commercial entities. An FBI agent will discuss the emerging threats in cybercrime and the methodology behind them. In addition, we will discuss the latest trends as insurance companies build and price cyber insurance products to protect commercial entities and their valuable computer and customer information. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Monday, Nov 7 3:00PM - 4:15PM CST Are MGAs the Future of Underwriting? Lon Chang, Ascot Group; Denise Olson, Zurich North America; Anju Arora, Ethos Specialty Insurance show more Description This session will provide two actuarial perspectives on what MGAs are, how they work, and what the MGA space looks like in the United States. It will explore some situations where a carrier may consider delegating authority and the types of risk typically involved. Case studies of product innovation in alternative markets, oriented towards addressing the needs of the underserved, will be covered. Operational considerations related to MGAs, including compliance and technology, will also be discussed. The session will be useful to anyone interested in tapping into alternative markets, or simply learning how approaches used in alternative markets can apply in traditional ones. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Monday, Nov 7 3:00PM - 4:15PM CST Speakers Lon Chang Ascot Group Denise Olson Zurich North America Anju Arora Ethos Specialty Insurance Deep Dive on the Code of Conduct 2.0 Kenneth Hsu, Breach Insurance; Ronald Kozlowski, RTK Actuarial & Professional Services; Patricia Teufel, Retired show more Description When is the last time you read the Code of Professional Conduct? In this popular repeat session format we will take you through it Precept by Precept, in a fun, interactive session with brand new scenarios. Behaving “professionally” is not always a black-and-white exercise – we operate in many grey areas, so its good to discuss in a group how these precepts apply in realistic situations. Our new scenarios will include many scenarios that may occur in our day-to-day work activities. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Monday, Nov 7 3:00PM - 4:15PM CST Speakers Kenneth Hsu Breach Insurance Ronald Kozlowski RTK Actuarial & Professional Services Patricia Teufel Retired Inflation - An Update Brian Brown, Milliman; John Jacobi, Aon show more Description Inflation is remaining at a high level. In this session, the speakers will provide historical and prospective insights on this issue. For economic (property) and social (casualty) inflations. Both speakers will also comment on how to incorporate this in actuarial work. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Monday, Nov 7 3:00PM - 4:15PM CST Speakers Brian Brown Milliman John Jacobi Aon Take the Pledge--Be an Actuary of the Future! Wesley Griffiths, Travelers Insurance; Julia Stenberg, CNA Insurance Companies; Alejandra Nolibos, Willis Towers Watson; Eric Kendig, Travelers; Jessica Leong, Octagram Analytics show more Description In her address to new members at the 2021 CAS Annual Meeting, Jessica Leong challenged members to be Actuaries of the Future--to apply our analytical skills to solve business problems with a tangible result. What are some examples of this in practice? How can you meet this challenge? In this session, a panel of Actuarial leaders responsible for hiring and developing actuaries will share tangible examples, ways to start putting this into practice, and answer questions. Please join us, and take the pledge to be an Actuary of the Future! Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Monday, Nov 7 3:00PM - 4:15PM CST Speakers Wesley Griffiths Travelers Insurance Julia Stenberg CNA Insurance Companies Alejandra Nolibos Willis Towers Watson Eric Kendig Travelers Jessica Leong Octagram Analytics The Actuarial Meaning of Insurance Bob Miccolis, Miccolis Consulting LLC; Michael Angelina, Saint Joseph's University; Robert Walling, Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc. show more Description The actuarial profession is grounded in the concepts of insurance. Many academic and other authors have written about the concepts and definitions of insurance. Actuaries have developed actuarial standards of practice, practice notes, principles, etc. However, the actuarial profession seldom explains the actuarial meaning of insurance. Insurance laws and regulations define insurance to protect the policyholders and the public. Accounting standards define insurance to fairly represent financial statements. But actuaries tend to rely on other professions to define insurance. Nonetheless, the actuarial profession has excellent insights about the wide scope of insurance applications since actuaries provide the quantifications necessary for insurance to survive despite many unknowns and uncertainties which resist measurement. Insurance pricing disputes arise around the definition of insurance, insurability, insurance accounting, insurer regulation, insurance taxation, arm’s length pricing of insurance transactions, actuarial pricing judgments, and actuarial risk assessment of insurer solvency. The law of large numbers is oft quoted as the foundation of actuarial science for insurance. However, this statistical law does not define insurance nor the actuarial profession. The presenters will discuss the actuarial meaning of insurance and highlight the major debates about the actuarial perspectives about the actuarial estimates necessary for insurance transactions to occur. The presenters will present examples to illustrate the potential for conflicting views and confusion when the definition and meaning of insurance is being questioned. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Monday, Nov 7 3:00PM - 4:15PM CST Speakers Bob Miccolis Miccolis Consulting LLC Michael Angelina Saint Joseph's University Robert Walling Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc. The Future of Enterprise Risk Management : Six Future Scenarios David Ingram, Retired; Robert Wolf, StoneTrust Commercial Insurance Company show more Description Enterprise Risk Management has evolved over the years and continues to evolve. Scenario based planning is good tool for forming company strategy and planning risk management. Scenarios considered could include current real life scenario (e.g. combining a pandemic, weather events, supply chain issues, inflation and a regional war all at the same time). Multi risk scenarios can provide major insights about a company’s resilience that do not necessarily happen when considering single risk scenarios or even with incorporating stochastic models. This session will describe several ways that the future might play out for enterprise risk management. The discussion will include thoughts on the likelihood of six possibilities of how ERM could realize and how the likelihood of those possibilities could be altered by our experiences over the past” two plus” years. Join us for a thought provoking discussion. We will also discuss the dilemma of the three little pigs in consideration of the above. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Monday, Nov 7 3:00PM - 4:15PM CST Speakers David Ingram Retired Robert Wolf StoneTrust Commercial Insurance Company
4:30pm CST CAS Research: Approaches to Address Racial Bias Elizabeth Demmon Storm, Travelers; Allan Ouyang, Travelers show more Description Join us for a discussion of the Casualty Actuarial Society’s Research Paper Series on Race and Insurance Pricing and the role of the actuary in addressing issues related to the topic. While material from each of the four papers may be referenced, this discussion will focus on Approaches to Address Racial Bias in Financial Services: Lessons for the Insurance Industry (https://www.casact.org/sites/default/files/2022-03/Research-Paper_Approaches-to-Address-Racial-Bias_0.pdf). What examples from other financial services are helpful to consider? Is the insurance industry destined to be reactive to regulatory framework? What role should the actuary take moving forward? Participants are encouraged, but not required, to review the paper in advance of the roundtable session. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Monday, Nov 7 4:30PM - 5:20PM CST Speakers Elizabeth Demmon Storm Travelers Allan Ouyang Travelers Sustainability Roundtable Jonathan Charak, Zurich North America show more Description TBD Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Monday, Nov 7 4:30PM - 5:20PM CST Speakers Jonathan Charak Zurich North America Understanding the Recent Changes in Hiring Pauline Reimer, Pryor Associates Executive Search show more Description Join us for a thoughtful dialogue on trends in today's hiring processes, interview and resume tips, and a proactive attitude towards new career opportunities hosted by NAWA Board Member, Ari Moskowitz. The session will also be followed with an opportunity to refresh your interview skills and resume with some of NAWA's talented volunteers. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Monday, Nov 7 4:30PM - 5:20PM CST Speakers Pauline Reimer Pryor Associates Executive Search
Tuesday, November 8
7:00am CST DEI in the Actuarial Profession Samuel Nolley, Arch Insurance Group show more Description 4% of actuaries are Black or Latino, compared to 15% of PhD recipients and 17% of STEM jobs. CAS research shows key challenges in the pipeline, in hiring, and in including people in the profession. Many organizations are announcing DEI initiatives, but what can individuals do? Come share best practices and advice for individuals who want to personally make a difference in improving diversity, equity and inclusion in the actuarial profession. For further reading, see: • CAS infographic: Keys to Unlocking Diversity in the Actuarial Profession (https://www.casact.org/sites/default/files/2022-02/Unlocking%20Diversity%20InfoGraphic.pdf) • Article: New Report Holds Keys to Diversity and Inclusion: Five Barriers Revealed (https://ar.casact.org/new-report-holds-keys-to-diversity-and-inclusion-five-barriers-revealed/) Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 7:00AM - 7:50AM CST Speakers Samuel Nolley Arch Insurance Group How work has changed as a result of COVID Joshua Merck, Deloitte Consulting, LLP show more Description Please join us for a discussion on successes / challenges or just the status quo for the working environment post-covid. Are teams consistently back in the office? How has this impacted training, development, productivity, retention? Looking to discuss industry and consulting perspectives to learn what seems to work best as we navigate the working style of the profession going forward. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 7:00AM - 7:50AM CST Speakers Joshua Merck Deloitte Consulting, LLP
8:00am CST Embedded Insurance and How it Could Change the Industry Landscape Adrian Jones, HSCM Ventures; Chloe Johnston; Joshua Snead, Rainwalk; Michael Meeks show more Description As technology has evolved so have economies and market dynamics. Embedded insurance has entered the scene as an area with rapid growth potential in a shifting insurance distribution paradigm. This session will bring in thought leaders in the space to not only define embedded insurance but also explore the opportunities and challenges it could present for the industry. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 8:00AM - 9:30AM CST Speakers Adrian Jones HSCM Ventures Chloe Johnston Joshua Snead Rainwalk Michael Meeks Key Risks and Opportunities: Today and Tomorrow Sean Kevelighan, Insurance Information Institute; Dale Porfilio, Insurance Insurance Institute show more Description With both climate-related risks and social inflation driving increasing losses and generating headlines, it’s important to understand both the drivers and outlook for these impacts on the insurance industry. First, climate related perils have caused significant events in recent years such as wildfires, hurricanes, derechos, and flooding. The session will explore the climate risk landscape and discuss how insurers, communities, and regulators are responding. Second, the session will turn to social inflation and the rising impact of litigation costs and claim payouts. The presentation will discuss the proliferation of class-action lawsuits, outsized verdicts, and litigation funding, while exploring the close connection between social and economic inflation. This session will conclude with a discussion of these topics with a forward-looking approach about what the industry and actuarial profession can do in response to these growing risks, as well as questions from the audience. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 8:00AM - 9:30AM CST Speakers Sean Kevelighan Insurance Information Institute Dale Porfilio Insurance Insurance Institute
10:00am CST Autonomous Vehicles: Things an Actuary Should Know Tilia Gode, Waymo; Ruoshu Chen, Waymo; John Scanlon show more Description In this session we will speak about autonomous vehicles, how they function, what data is collected and how we can think about quantifying the safety benefits of the technology. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 10:00AM - 11:15AM CST Speakers Tilia Gode Waymo Ruoshu Chen Waymo John Scanlon Building the Actuary of the Future Chelsea Adler, Root Insurance Company; Dominic Lee, SAS; Rafael Costa, Cruise show more Description The industry has evolved and so have the skills needed to be a successful actuary and risk expert. This session covers the hard and soft skills that an actuary should strive to possess to maximize their impact and value creation. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 10:00AM - 11:15AM CST Speakers Chelsea Adler Root Insurance Company Dominic Lee SAS Rafael Costa Cruise Challenges and Tips for Researching DEI Topics Jean-Marc Fix, Optimum Re Insurance Company; Mallika Bender, Casualty Actuarial Society; Lisa Schilling, Society of Actuaries; Sharla Floyd, American Family Insurance show more Description "The Casualty Actuarial Society, the Society of Actuaries and the Society of Insurance Research have started developing research addressing DEI topics. The panelists will briefly present overview of their research and will share their perspectives on common challenges faced across the stages of research: • Planning relevant and timely research with a long timeline • Getting appropriate data and resources to support your research • Communicating research on topics that may be controversial" Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 10:00AM - 11:15AM CST Speakers Jean-Marc Fix Optimum Re Insurance Company Mallika Bender Casualty Actuarial Society Lisa Schilling Society of Actuaries Sharla Floyd American Family Insurance Mitigation that Matters: A Wildfire Case Study Peggy Brinkmann, Milliman; Thomas Larsen, CoreLogic show more Description In recent years, insurers have been increasing rates, non-renewing risks, and refining their rating plans to account for wildfire risk. While these actions may address insurer profitability, they do little for the homes in high-risk areas who see premium increases, policy non-renewals, and commonly are denied new policies by insurance companies even if mitigation efforts have been put in place. Hurricane mitigation credits have long existed in insurance rating plans in exposed states, but wildfires have only recently become financially significant enough to necessitate similar pricing actions from the insurance industry. To date, few companies offer discounts for property-specific home hardening or community mitigation efforts. For the companies who have filed such discounts, they are often modest and judgmentally quantified. Appropriate quantification of the impacts of various mitigation efforts can benefit both insurers and consumers, as well as inform public policy and public safety decisions. In this session we will discuss actuarial considerations and approaches for developing wildfire mitigation credits and the results of the wildfire mitigation case studies presented in the paper “Catastrophe Models for Wildfire Mitigation: Quantifying Credits and Benefits to Homeowners and Communities”. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 10:00AM - 11:15AM CST Speakers Peggy Brinkmann Milliman Thomas Larsen CoreLogic Penalized regression - Between Credibility and GBM Guillaume Beraud-Sudreau, Akur8; Mattia Casotto, Akur8 show more Description "Penalized regression is steadily becoming a mainstream application in ratemaking. There is a momentum in the insurance space with innovation in research, software and production on penalized techniques that build and innovate the standard GLM models. Historically, this technique was popularized by the machine learning literature, and how it is taught is not synchronized with how actuaries approach modeling to solve insurance problems. This should not be the case: the penalized framework is versatile and allows to effectively solve many insurance use cases that are currently tackled via established techniques. First, we will see how, practically and theoretically, Penalized Regressions are effectively Credibility procedures and allow to blend GLM with credibility to reduce overfitting and improve a model’s ability to generalize. Then on the other hand, we will display how Penalized regression can be thought of as GBMs, a powerful but yet completely black box modeling technique. Since Penalized regressions can effectively tie standard Credibility practices and incorporate some of the benefits of GBMs, this presentation aims to contribute the diffusion of these techniques as solid alternatives to standard GLMs for ratemaking." Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 10:00AM - 11:15AM CST Speakers Guillaume Beraud-Sudreau Akur8 Mattia Casotto Akur8 The Tech Spectrum Isaac Espinoza, Root Insurance Company; Ryan McMahon; Adrian Jones, HSCM Ventures show more Description The line between Insurtech and Traditional insurers has blurred over the years. Every company sits somewhere on the technology spectrum, and it is important to know how companies got to their position as well as which direction they are going. This session will cover the tradeoffs for investments in technology and innovation and the corresponding results, both short-term and long-term, expected from making those investments. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 10:00AM - 11:15AM CST Speakers Isaac Espinoza Root Insurance Company Ryan McMahon Adrian Jones HSCM Ventures
11:45am CST ADAS: Why Isn't It Working? Or Is It??? Donald Hendriks, Carfax; Matthew Moore, Highway Loss Data Institute; Dushyant Pattni, Nationwide Insurance show more Description Using evidence from the CARFAX Vehicle Insights Program, we will investigate how Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) are impacting auto insurers. We will review which features are the effective at reducing claims frequency, and drill into the reasons behind the apparent increase in severity for ADAS-equipped vehicles. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 11:45AM - 1:00PM CST Speakers Donald Hendriks Carfax Matthew Moore Highway Loss Data Institute Dushyant Pattni Nationwide Insurance CAS Admissions Department Updates Maggie Lyons, Casualty Actuarial Society; Ashley Zamperini, Casualty Actuarial Society; William Wilder show more Description Hold for Description: Please join the Admissions team for an update on the Admissions Transformation Plan. We will discuss the exciting work that has been completed thus far as well as planned work for next year. - Presenters: William Wilder, VP of Admissions; Margaret Lyons, Director of Certification Development; Ashley Zamperini, Director of Certification Products Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 11:45AM - 1:00PM CST Speakers Maggie Lyons Casualty Actuarial Society Ashley Zamperini Casualty Actuarial Society William Wilder Commercial Auto - At Crossroads? Thomas Kenia, Aon; Timothy McCarthy, Verisk Underwriting Solutions show more Description After years of adverse loss development and rate increases, are the commercial auto results finally improving? The first speaker will go over the historical auto results. The second speaker will provide insights on these results (results are not the same for all commercial auto players, etc,,,). Both speakers will conclude by providing their 2023-24 forecast for commercial auto. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 11:45AM - 1:00PM CST Speakers Thomas Kenia Aon Timothy McCarthy Verisk Underwriting Solutions Dislocation Analysis: Segment Detection of Disrupted Rates Guillaume Beraud-Sudreau, Akur8; Robert Zolla, Milliman; Thomas Holmes, Akur8 show more Description Control of rate changes is particularly challenging for complex insurance products. Multiple risks are covered by these contracts, and each risk requires its own specific modeling. When all these risks are combined and entangled, the cumulative effect may lead to undesired disruptive rate changes. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 11:45AM - 1:00PM CST Speakers Guillaume Beraud-Sudreau Akur8 Robert Zolla Milliman Thomas Holmes Akur8 Open-Source Actuarial Science with Examples Kenneth Hsu, Breach Insurance; John Bogaardt, WCF Insurance show more Description Actuarial science has been built on the idea of open-science with a rich repository of papers, monographs, and studies made freely available by the CAS. Recently the CAS launched a Github organization, enabling the open-science philosophy to be extended to open-source tooling. This session will explore the benefits of open-source tools, how we should all get involved. We will also dive deeper into the chainladder-python library to give a practical example of how these tools and the community that surround them can benefit you and your organization. A live demo will be run in Google Colab if you want to follow along, no prior installation required. Please sign up for the round table if you are interested in a tutorial working session led by the speakers. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 11:45AM - 1:00PM CST Speakers Kenneth Hsu Breach Insurance John Bogaardt WCF Insurance Spreadsheets vs R or Python? Liam McGrath, Willis Towers Watson; Kevin Dalton, American Modern Insurance Group; Patrick Yu, Kaiser Permanente show more Description Is the actuarial profession changing from using spreadsheets to using programming languages like R or Python?  Hear some of you colleagues explain why they have switched! Spreadsheets keep the data in front of the user with the calculations hidden in the background.  Traditional coding using R or Python keep the calculations in front of the user, with the data hidden in the background.  See some real examples on how typical actuarial tasks are being transformed into R and Python. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 11:45AM - 1:00PM CST Speakers Liam McGrath Willis Towers Watson Kevin Dalton American Modern Insurance Group Patrick Yu Kaiser Permanente Winning the Communication Battle Brian Brown, Milliman; Kathleen Odomirok, EY show more Description Actuarial work is complicated and difficult to understand and so it is hard for non-actuaries to understand our work. The problem is often exacerbated by actuaries having spent 10,000 or more hours studying technical matters but probably less than 1,000 hours developing communication skills. As actuaries advance in their careers, effective communication becomes more important than analytical work (which can be delegated to capable staff). Also, as actuaries we likely have even less experience in dealing with confrontation which can be critical when communicating bad news. This session will provide a number of suggestions to help you and your staff become better communicators. We will also cover through two vignettes some of the more difficult communication situations that actuaries face (Presenting to Boards and Delivering Bad News). Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 11:45AM - 1:00PM CST Speakers Brian Brown Milliman Kathleen Odomirok EY
2:30pm CST CAS Admissions Update - Roundtable show more Description Discuss the Admissions Transformation Plan. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 2:30PM - 3:20PM CST New ACAS Roundtable: The Associate’s Perspective show more Description New Associates discuss their decisions to pursue careers in P&C and offer the CAS advice on positioning itself as the best career path for aspiring actuaries, improving its connection to exam candidates and better engaging new members in the CAS community. Limited to New Associates only. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 2:30PM - 3:20PM CST Open Source Actuarial Science Intro Tutorial Working Session Kenneth Hsu, Breach Insurance; John Bogaardt, WCF Insurance show more Description Join us at the roundtable and work on the starter tutorial as we explore the most popular open-source package on the CAS repository. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 2:30PM - 3:20PM CST Speakers Kenneth Hsu Breach Insurance John Bogaardt WCF Insurance Using Insurance Data to Improve Risk Scoring Leandro DalleMule show more Description Existing commercial insurance loss propensity scores have leveraged traditional, generic business data - not specific to insurance - to predict future losses. There is an opportunity to create new risk scores that create unprecedented loss propensity score performance by tapping into specific line of business (e.g., Workers Comp, General Liability, etc.) and business segment specific (e.g., Construction, Manufacturing, Retail, etc.) insurance data assets. Insurance specific data assets create unprecedented lift to the efficacy and performance of commercial loss propensity models. In this session you will be able to apply risk scoring to improve underwriting, preventing premium leakage and improve the renewal process. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Tuesday, Nov 8 2:30PM - 3:20PM CST Speakers Leandro DalleMule
Wednesday, November 9
8:00am CST Applications of Gaussian Process Regression Models Marco De Virgilis, Arch Insurance Group; Giulio Carnevale show more Description Gaussian Processes (GP) are stochastic processes, collections of indexed random variables based on the normal distribution. In the context of statistics these processes are well known and well-behaved objects that have been extensively explored. On the other hand, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), is a relatively lesser-known procedure based on GP, which can be implemented both for regression and classification problems. GPR can be defined as a supervised non-parametric technique stemming from the Bayesian field. This is a relatively novel technique in the field of Machine Learning, only used in some niche applications. Moreover, its use is nearly unknown in Actuarial Science, with only one analysis published in the literature. The presentation will: a) Briefly review the theoretical foundations behind GPR. b) Show how to apply suitable reserving algorithms based on GPR on typical insurance data sets. c) Compare different approaches in terms of predictive performance and practical usability. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Wednesday, Nov 9 8:00AM - 9:15AM CST Speakers Marco De Virgilis Arch Insurance Group Giulio Carnevale Enterprise Risk Management – Steering Your Board :Guidance and Buy-in Robert Wolf, StoneTrust Commercial Insurance Company; Michelle Baurkot, Milliman show more Description This session will be represented as a case study and role playing where the Enterprise Risk Professionals will be communicating his/her quarterly ERM and/or annual ORSA report to the Board. What style of presentation is recommended to gain optimum buy-in, understanding, and support from your Board? Risk Appetite statements are often vague and qualitative, making it challenging to make the connection to day-to-day decision making. In this session, we discuss leading practices for defining risk appetite clearly and quantitatively, providing a direct and actionable line-of-sight to decision making. Join us in an interactive session where panelists will be involved in role-playing in the interest of generating interactive discussions with the audience. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Wednesday, Nov 9 8:00AM - 9:15AM CST Speakers Robert Wolf StoneTrust Commercial Insurance Company Michelle Baurkot Milliman From Theory to Practice: Applications and Illustrations of Bias Identification and Mitigation Techniques Mallika Bender, Casualty Actuarial Society; Michael Chen, Willis Towers Watson; Marc Elliott, RAND Corporation show more Description The utilization of models and the potential for the presence of bias or disproportionate impact on certain protected classes is a pressing topic in the insurance industry today. Many have weighed in on the topic, from regulatory and advocacy groups to actuaries and data scientists, and the discussion has ranged from holistic to technical. This presentation will bridge the gap by providing practical considerations and illustrations of different approaches to identify and address potential bias. The session will begin by exploring one technique known as Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding, that has been used across many industries to infer protected class information, specifically race/ethnicity, for the purposes of bias identification and mitigation efforts. The session will then proceed to offer easy to understand mathematical representations of some of the common approaches to identify and mitigate potential bias in actuarial data and models. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Wednesday, Nov 9 8:00AM - 9:15AM CST Speakers Mallika Bender Casualty Actuarial Society Michael Chen Willis Towers Watson Marc Elliott RAND Corporation Introduction to Layered GBM Liam McGrath, Willis Towers Watson; Justin Milam, WTW show more Description In this session, the speakers will introduce an innovation on the traditional Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), which we call Layered GBM. The GBM algorithm has established itself as a strong tool for modelers, but suffers from the reputation as being a complex, black box approach to modeling. We will describe the concept behind the Layered GBM and illustrate how this alternative provides improved interpretability of the model results, without loss of predictiveness, compared to the traditional GBM outputs. We made these adaptions in recognition we are looking at the insurance problem as a whole, and the model outputs need to provide more than a validation of accuracy. This enhanced interpretability can make GBMs more attractive to internal stakeholders and regulators. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Wednesday, Nov 9 8:00AM - 9:15AM CST Speakers Liam McGrath Willis Towers Watson Justin Milam WTW Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change on Atmospheric Perils Daniel Ward; Michael Tine show more Description Atmospheric Perils such as Hurricane, Storm Surge, and Wildfire are changing. How are these changes impacting your company’s portfolio? This session explores the finding from the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) related to Atmospheric Perils and how these changes have been incorporated into catastrophe models. In addition, we look at a basic example of how your company can use climate-related catastrophe models to project future expected losses given a range of possible global shifts in fossil fuel use. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Wednesday, Nov 9 8:00AM - 9:15AM CST Speakers Daniel Ward Michael Tine Used is the New New: A Changing Auto Market Donald Hendriks, Carfax; Matthew Moore, Highway Loss Data Institute show more Description Over the last 24 months, the new car market has encountered several major disruptions. It began the pandemic shutdowns depressed the demand side of the market equation, then was exacerbated as drivers transitioned to long-term work-from-home arrangements. Then, as the market began to pick up, plant shutdowns, parts shortages, and supply chain disruptions depressed the supply side of the market equation. The used car market has shifted to fill the gaps in the new car market. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Wednesday, Nov 9 8:00AM - 9:15AM CST Speakers Donald Hendriks Carfax Matthew Moore Highway Loss Data Institute What Everyone Needs to Know About Bitcoin & Crypto Ravi Sharma, Willis Towers Watson show more Description Bitcoin is the amalgamation of years of development within cryptography, computer science, and economic fields of study. While the technology is new to many, the underlying principles are slow, steady, and stable evolutions of these time-honored disciplines. As headlines and the daily news cycle are quick to jump to conclusions, it’s important for the insurance industry to look to the horizon and develop a solid understanding of this technology and how it can play a role in our industry’s future. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Wednesday, Nov 9 8:00AM - 9:15AM CST Speakers Ravi Sharma Willis Towers Watson
9:45am CST A.M. Best Mock Rating Hearing show more Description This session provides look at the AM Best rating committee process. A hypothetical insurance company will be used to illustrate the typical rating committee meeting process. included will be illustrations and examples of how A.M. Best looks at items such as innovation, ESG, and Enterprise Risk Management, BCAR, and operating performance in combination. This session is meant to be interactive with the audience to the extent that the audience will be allowed to provide their assessments (through voting) to the four components of the rating process, including voting on whether to upgrade, downgrade, or keep neutral the rating of the hypothetical company. The session will include Q&A where audiences can ask specific inquiries and clarifications on the rating process, especially on how AM Best values ERM, ESG, and innovation. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Wednesday, Nov 9 9:45AM - 11:00AM CST Application of Bayesian MCMC to Reserving Noisy Data Michael Larsen, Retired; Carl Ashenbrenner, Milliman show more Description This session will present a couple of short case studies illustrating how to estimate reserves by applying Bayesian MCMC concepts on noisy data. The first case study will apply to low frequency / high severity lines of business such as Directors and Officers or Umbrella, where the loss triangle shows zero payments in early development months and the claim severity has a heavy tail. The next case will apply to incorporating changes to reserving models, such as organizational, business, or inflationary changes. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Wednesday, Nov 9 9:45AM - 11:00AM CST Speakers Michael Larsen Retired Carl Ashenbrenner Milliman ASOP 12 Risk Classification - Proposed Revisions Bob Miccolis, Miccolis Consulting LLC; Brian Mullen, American Family Insurance Group show more Description The Actuarial Standards Board is proposing changes to ASOP 12 on Risk Classification. Insurance rates in many states shall not be “excessive, inadequate, or unfairly discriminatory.” The actuarial profession has long considered that rates meet those rating laws if the rates are actuarially sound. But understanding the precise meanings of “actuarially sound” and “unfairly discriminatory” requires a more nuance understanding. Today's changing views which reflect the nature of social structures and advances in predictive analytics has caused reconsideration of whether existing notions of unfair discrimination and actuarial soundness might perpetuate socially undesirable inequities in insurance products, services, prices (rates), and availability. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Wednesday, Nov 9 9:45AM - 11:00AM CST Speakers Bob Miccolis Miccolis Consulting LLC Brian Mullen American Family Insurance Group Flood Insurance: An Update show more Description Is the US making progress on flood risk mitigation? Is the Gov’t going to finally accept reasonable actuarially justified flood rates? Are new flood programs being formed despite the increasing risks from climate change? How is climate change going to affect flood risk? What new tools are being introduced to help insurers manage flood risk? How does the NAIC play a role in influencing flood policies across the U.S.? Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Wednesday, Nov 9 9:45AM - 11:00AM CST How Inflation and Enhanced Safety Features are Changing the Personal Auto Insurance Market Matthew Moore, Highway Loss Data Institute; Justin Milam, WTW; marty ellingsworth, J. D. Power show more Description The annual inflation rate was at 9.1% through June of 2022, including rates of 59.9% for gasoline, 11.4% for new vehicles, and 1.7% for used cars and trucks. At the same time, vehicles are increasingly included with enhanced safety features that impact the insurance industry in a variety of ways. In this session, we will discuss the changes in the new and used vehicle market since 2020, the evolution of enhanced safety features, how these are impacting personal auto loss costs, and how companies are reacting. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Wednesday, Nov 9 9:45AM - 11:00AM CST Speakers Matthew Moore Highway Loss Data Institute Justin Milam WTW marty ellingsworth J. D. Power Tapping Into the Next Generation of Actuaries Gao Niu, Bryant University show more Description In an industry where emerging trends and issues are consistently making companies innovate and diversify their skill sets, how are the next generation of actuaries prepared to make an immediate impact when entering the workforce? Is your company tapping into the full potential of new candidates and their unique talents? This interactive session will feature this year’s CAS University award winners and highlight the innovative ways they are preparing their students to becoming actuaries of the future. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Wednesday, Nov 9 9:45AM - 11:00AM CST Speakers Gao Niu Bryant University
11:30am CST The Future of Work Post-COVID-19 : Re-imagining Our Work in the “New Normal” show more Description The results of the pandemic have accelerated on-going macro trends. The benefits of which has realized in things we can do that were not imaginable pre-post-pandemic. In this session, we discuss opportunities to put these trends to work in our work styles today and tomorrow. In this session we will discuss the “great resignation” and its potential affects on the the P&C Industry, and the opportunities that can be deployed given this trend. Discussion will include whether this trend will be sustainable in the foreseeable future. Timeslot - Day, Date, Time Wednesday, Nov 9 11:30AM - 1:00PM CST
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